First of all, please apologize for my absence over the last couple of weeks ! I had some problems with my
disease (cancer) but fortunately everything is now OK again and I am back in the market 🙂
Following the flash-crash seen yesterday where, as you know the BTC lost roughly 10’000 points in a very short
period of time, I thought it was the good timing to globally review all time frames in starting from the Long Term
view (Monthly) to the very short term view (Min 5).
So let’s go :
M1 : The 61.8 % Fib Ret @ 51’030 has been filled with an intra-month high so far @ 52’956
Nothing to add for the time being, wait for monthly closing at the end of September !
W1 : Very interesting to look at the price action seen over the last couple of weeks around the Kijun-Sen @ 46’747; indeed, this level became, after having been broken on the upside the new support zone to look at and yesterday it has been broken on the downside again ! So, on a weekly basis, this level of 46’747 should be seen as the KEY PIVOT LEVEL, on this time frame.
I would add that, in order to neutralise, the downside risk, the BTC should close on a weekly basis above the 48’800/49’300 area !
A failure to do it would put further selling pressure on the table.
D1 : High volatility seen yesterday (High @ 52’956 and Low @ 42’900). LONG BLACK CANDLE —>> BEARISH ENGULFING PATTERN — >RSI bearish divergence . Mid Bollinger Band , Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen have been clearly broken on a daily closing basis !!! So what next ?
Currently attempting to recover towards the first significant resistance level of 47’928 ahead of 48’848; in order to neutralise the ongoing downside risk, the BTC needs to recover and hold sustainably above the levels previously mentioned.
On the downside, the daily clouds area should be seen as the main support level which roughly coincides with the former low reached yesterday @ 42’900
H4 : Clearly below the clouds and below the Kijun-Sen. We needs to see an upside move above 47’000 (which would trigger a bullish engulfing pattern !), in this 4 hours time frame to neutralise the bearish price
action seen over the last 12 hours. Interesting to note that there is no bullish divergence detected so far… for the time being, it looks like it is a corrective move only in a new bear trend…
H1 : Below the clouds, the Kijun-Sen and the Mid Bollinger Band , currently trying to recover above the Tenkan-Sen (Conversion line), still, for the time being in corrective mode.
M30 : Below the clouds and the Mid Bollinger Band . A Bullish divergence on RSI , coupled with a perfect doji pattern, triggered the ongoing recovery attempt. Watch carefully MBB to see if BTC will manage to
recover and hold above it then watch at the clouds resistance for confirmation.
M15 : Cluster of MBB and Kijun under a breakout attack but still below the clouds
M5 : Top of the clouds resistance area rejected, for the time being an upside breakout. High so far @ 45’760, close to the 61.8% Fib ret @ 46’259of the last move from 47’386 to 44’436.
CONCLUSION : WATCH AT THE FOLLOWING KEY LEVEL AREA WHICH IS @ 47’928 ON A DAILY BASIS and 46’747 ON A WEEKLY BASIS ! FOR THE TIME BEING ANY LONG TACTICAL EXPOSURE SHOULD BE COUPLED WITH A TIGHT TRAILING STOP LOSS
Have a nice trading day, all the best,
I am going to open my new website soon and I will keep you posted 🙂
All views expressed on my analysis are my own and do not represent the opinions of any entity, whatsoever with which I have been, I am now or I will be affiliated with. Any action you take upon the information on those analysis is strictly at your own risk and should not be considered as an advisory. The author assumes no responsibility or liability for any errors or omissions in the content of his analysis. The information contained is provided on an «as is» basis, with no guarantees of completeness, accuracy, usefulness or timeliness and without any warranties of any kind whatsoever, express or implied.