Good morning, I hope you are all well 🙂
Today we are going to look especially at the daily picture which is showing a crucial and critical support level around the 40’000 area !!!
The reason is very simple : “WATCH THE CLOUDS !”
Indeed, as you can see on this chart, the first downside breakout has been rejected by what ?
By the clouds !
This rejection triggered an upside corrective move of roughly 10% (or +/- 5’000 points) towards a intraday high of 45’159 –> pullback towardsthe former uptrend support line (in green) and failure to break it !!!
Now, BTCUSD is again very close of this important support level and a breakout confirmation of the clouds on a daily basis would be seen as the firstsignificant bearish signal on this daily time frame which would open the door for lower level targeting respectively 39’573 (former low of Sept 21st) ahead of37’903 (61.8% Fib ret 28600-52956) then, the triangle target @ 36’732 and lower the bottom of the weekly clouds @ 33’812, which is also the 78.6% Fib ret).
In order to neutralise, temporary, this ongoing strategic bearish structure, BTCUSD needs, firstly to quickly recover and hold on a daily closing basis above 42’366 –> bullish engulfing pattern; indeed,such kind of price action would be the first step of a long journey as there are plenty of obstacles to go through on the upside before conclude that we will be again in abull market.
PIVOT LEVELS TO BREAK ON THE UPSIDE ARE THE FOLLOWING :
46’265 ( KS )
48’000 (D1 CLOUDS TOP)
Watch shorter time frames (intraday) to get early and intermediate signals which will validate or invalide the above scenarios mentioned and allow you to act accordingly.
Do not forget, we are currently in a STRATEGIC BEAR MARKET, and any TACTICAL EXPOSURE (countertrend) should be monitored on disciplined manner in using tight trailing stop losses !!!
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Have a nice day.
Take care and all the best
All views expressed on my analysis are my own and do not represent the opinions of any entity, whatsoever with which I have been, I am now or I will be affiliated with. Any action you take upon the information on those analysis is strictly at your own risk and should not be considered as an advisory. The author assumes no responsibility or liability for any errors or omissions in the content of his analysis. The information contained is provided on an «as is» basis, with no guarantees of completeness, accuracy, usefulness or timeliness and without any warranties of any kind whatsoever, express or implied.