The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement @ $ 104.68 mentioned in my previous analysis has been filled with an intra-week low @ $ 101.53, which is the level of the Kijun-Sen or Base line and which worked, so far, perfectly well in rejecting the breakout attempt.
The Crude Oil futures is caught between the Kijun-Sen ( KS ) in support @ 101.54 and the Tenkan-Sen ( TS ) in resistance @ 109.48.
Last week price action showed some uncertainty and indecision about further development for the upcoming week as shown by the shape of the candle. (small body with long wicks… !)
The weekly closing level @ $ 107,62 is above the ongoing support trend line , currently @ 105.18 and also above the 21 daily Moving Average @ 105.77.
On a weekly basis, an in order to come back in a sustainable bull trend, the Crude Oil should recover and close above the middle ($114.10) of the long black candle of the week before; indeed, such kind of price action would trigger a PIERCING LINE and would neutralise the ongoing downside selling pressure, once again in this WEEKLY PICTURE !
Looking at the DOWNSIDE, the KIJUN-SEN @ $ 101.54 IS THE SUPPORT WHICH SHOULD NOT BE BROKEN on a weekly basis closing level; indeed, a failure to hold above this level would put the focus on £00’51 which is the 78.6% Fib ret of the $ 92.93 – $ 123.68 previous rally) ahead of $ 92.93 former low of April 2022.
After having successively marking lower closing levels than the previous one and this during 7 sessions in a row, on Thursday a DOJI took place which has been followed on Friday by a long white candle (BULLISH ENGULFING PATTERN)
Such kind of price action should be seen as a first positive signal calling for a recovery continuation and this despite the fact that no BULLISH DIVERGENCE has been detected yet and therefore should still be seen as a corrective move only, with the following targets :
R1 : $ 109.99
R2 : $ 112.61 (very important as it is also the cluster of the Daily Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen !)
R3 : $ 115.22
On the downside a DAILY CLOSING BELOW $ 104,25 would put again the Crude Oil in its former daily downtrend.
4 HOURS (H4)
Double bottom formation in this 4 hours time frame (trigger level @ 107.29) (Warning of potential BULL TRAP !) as the last candle was a DOJI and therefore should be confirmed for a target of $ 113.05 which is currently the bottom of the H4 clouds resistance area .
On the downside, a failure to hold and stay above $ 105. 40 (4 hours uptrend support line) would put the focus to $103.00 area (former downtrend line resistance) ahead of former low @ 101.53
After having reached an intraday high of $ 108.49 after the daily closing, the Crude Oil went down and broke its hourly uptrend support line; it is stil above the hourly Tenkan-Sen @ 106.74 and above the hourly clouds support ($106.35 – $ 105.07)
A failure to hold above the bottom of the clouds around $ 105.00 would be the first warning signal of a continuation of selling pressure which corroborate the view expressed in H4)
IRONMAN8848 – Jean-Pierre Burki
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