2022/06/15 10:28 AM – SP 500 MINI FUT – CRUCIAL LEVEL @ 3’800

SP500-MINI FUT- CRUCIAL LEVEL @ 3’800.. by Ironman8848 on TradingView.com

WEEKLY (W1)

Looking at the weekly picture, we can see that there is plenty of space to the downside in this primary downtrend as you can see on the above chart.

Indeed, in looking simply from where we started in March 2020 (@ 2’174) and how far we’ve gone (@ 4’808.25) , more than 120 % ! it is quite normal to see what is going on and this since the end of 2021 (have a look at my previous analysis -l ink to related ideas below)

The SP 500 already reached its 38.2% Fibonacci retracement @ 3’802. which is for the time being, quite marginal, isn’t it ? If you look at the GLOBAL PICTURE, the 50 % Fib ret is @ 3’491 and the 61.8% Fib ret is @ 3’180; lower the 78.6% (extension Fib) is @ 2’737 which match with the monthly clouds support zone .

Very important to note that on monthly basis, the long term uptrend support level match exactly with the 78.6% Fib re which means that in the worst case scenario, as long as the monthly clouds support zone is not clearly broken the very long term uptrend is still alive (from March 2009 @ 666) !

The breakout of the weekly clouds support area has given an additional confirmation for this continuation of this ongoing bearish price action; a pullback failure, rejected by both the Tenkan-Sen and the bottom of the weekly clouds triggered a new selling wave which pushed the SP 500 below its important and crucial support level of 3’800 !

The primary downtrend resistance line is currently @ 4’484, very close to the top of the weekly clouds resistance.

For the time being, the cluster of KS and MM21 (4’253-4’258) should be considered as the first major resistance area to breakout with as an intermediary resistance, the TS @ 4’108.

The LAGGING LINE is still, for the time being in the clouds, close to its bottom and a weekly breakout of this zone would add conviction for further bearish price action.

Follow, as well, the RSI , on a weekly closing basis (potential bullish divergence in progress, which should be, of course confirmed !)

DAILY (D1)

Temporary stabilisation, as shown by the yesterday’s candle with a little body ; today’s closing level will give more clues about further development !

Indeed a daily closing above 3’815 would validate a PIERCING LINE and which would also confirm a BULLISH ENGULFING PATTERN.

That could trigger an upside move towards the cluster of TS and KS (3’948-3’955) and higher towards the MM 21 @ 3’999 (note that the 61.8% Fib ret of the last downside move from 4’202.75 to 3’708.50 is @ 4^013.75.

4 HOURS (H4)

Bullish divergence and recovery attempt in progress, currently around its first resistance ( TS @ 3’758), the ongoing closing level in this 4 hours time horizon will give more information and validate or invalidate the upside breakout of the TS which worked, so far perfectly well in rejecting all breakout attempts and this from the 4’100 area.

Above next level to look at will be 3’833 and 3’926. the latter level being also the 50 % Fib ret of the last downside leg from 4’144 to 3’708.50

1 HOUR (H1)

In this short time frame of 1 hour, we can find, and it is not new, this resistance zone of 3’800 which is both the congestion zone of June 13th and the doji pattern seen on June 14th.

The RSIbullish divergence broke its first short term resistance ( TS , MM21 and KS ) (3’751-3’758)

Next resistance area to look at, is @ 3’780-3’880 which is the 1 hour clouds area.

I wish you a very nice day and may be I will see and meet you, later on, at the Swissquote Trading day which will take place at EPFL, in Lausanne. 🙂

In the meantime, if you have time, please have a look at my website

http://www.ironman8848.com

and do not hesitate to give me your feedback on : contact@ironman8848.com

IRONMAN8848 – Jean-Pierre Burki

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