MONTHLY ( M1 )
After having reached an intra-month low @ 13’706 the Nasdaq recovered nicely to close on a monthly basis @ 14’905, slightly above the Tenkan-Sen which was in January @ 14’841…. BUT BELOW THE 15’000 AREA, which has been mentioned in my previous analysis !
38.2% Fib ret filled @ 14’834
Indeed, a monthly and closing level above the 15’000 would force to a view reassessment of the expected bearish scenario calling for the FIRST STRATEGIC TARGET @ 12’894.
Intermediate monthly support level @ 13’745
LONG TERM PICTURE REMAINS BEARISH !
Previous week price action triggered a DOJI pattern, which means uncertainty about further development; ongoing candle is showing, for the time being a white candle, which is :
1) Above the weekly clouds
BUT BELOW :
1) The Tenkan-Sen
2) The Kijun-Sen
3) The Mid Bollinger Band
All those 3 indicators are confirming the ongoing downward pressure, calling for lower levels !
Only a sustainable recovery above the cluster (15’180-15’240) on a weekly closing basis would neutralise the ongoing persisting downside risk.
Yesterday’s price action triggered a long white bullish candle which closed @ 14’905, roughly at the level of the ongoing secondary downtrend resistance line.
Today’s price action, particularly it’s closing level would be important as that could be the first warning signal of a validation or invalidation of the downtrend line breakout !
Nevertheless, I would remain cautious, having in mind, that even if today’s closing level is above 14’800, there are, above, still a couple of obstacles to breakout such as :
1) The Mid Bollinger Band (15’112)
2) The Kijun-Sen (15’182)
which corroborate with the view expressed on the weekly picture previously mentioned !
On the downside, watch :
1) the ongoing uptrend support line (in green) which also coincides with the level of the Tenkan-Sen (@ 14’523)
A daily closing level below 14’523 would reopen the door for lower levels
4 HOURS (H4)
Currently slightly above the 4 hours clouds; recent and current price action in this time frame is showing a lack of follow through, coupled with a growing uncertainty about further upside (small candles, small bodies !)
Watch the Tenkan-Sen (14’682) as the first significant support level in this 4 hours time frame !
A failure to hold above it on a H4 closing basis, would put the focus on the Mid Bollinger Band (14’473) ahead of the Kijun-Sen (14’398) and the H4 clouds bottom zone, currently @ 14’360)
1 HOUR (H1)
Currently above the clouds but below the Mid Bollinger Band and the Tenkan-Sen !
Watch the Kijun-Sen (@ 14’690) as the first support in this time frame.
A failure to hold above this level on H1 closing basis, would open the door for the clouds support zone (14’400-14’270)
Ironman8848 & Jean-Pierre Burki
All views expressed on my analysis are my own and do not represent the opinions of any entity, whatsoever with which I have been, I am now or I will be affiliated with. Any action you take upon the information on those analysis is strictly at your own risk and should not be considered as an advisory. The author assumes no responsibility or liability for any errors or omissions in the content of his analysis. The information contained is provided on an «as is» basis, with no guarantees of completeness, accuracy, usefulness or timeliness and without any warranties of any kind whatsoever, express or implied.
Toutes les opinions exprimées dans mes analyses sont les miennes et ne représentent pas les opinions d’une entité, quelle qu’elle soit, avec laquelle j’ai été, je suis ou je serai affilié. Toute action que vous entreprenez sur la base des informations contenues dans ces analyses est strictement à vos propres risques et ne doit pas être considérée comme un conseil. L’auteur n’assume aucune responsabilité pour toute erreur ou omission dans le contenu de ses analyses. Les informations contenues sont fournies “en l’état”, sans garantie d’exhaustivité, d’exactitude, d’utilité ou d’opportunité et sans aucune garantie de quelque nature que ce soit, expresse ou implicite.