4 HOURS (H4)
In this 4 hours time frame, we can see a sideways price action which is currently roughly in the middle of the clouds area and around the cluster zone(42-625-43097).
Such kind of price action is showing some growing uncertainty about further development and a breakout outside of the clouds will have the following implications :
1) On the upside :
R1 :38.2% Fib ret @ 44’349, roughly former intraday high of Jan 13 (44’456)
R2 : 50 % Fib ret @ 45’828 which should be seen as a key pivot level as it is also the level of the Kijun-Sen on a daily basis
R3 : 61.8% Fib ret @ 47308
R4 : 78.6% Fib ret @ 49’415
Very interesting to note that the latter level also coincides with the bottom of the daily clouds resistance area (overlay on the top of the chart)
2) On the downside :
S1 : 42’625 ( TS )
S2 : 41’780
S3 : 41’000
A breakout of 41’000 would put the focus again on the psychological 40’000 level ahead of former low @ 39’559
Still in an ongoing broad trend price action.
A clear breakout (daily closing basis !) of both levels would force to a view reassessment of the expected ongoing downside move.
On the downside a daily closing level below 42’000 would reopen the door for the former lows.
b]As a gentle reminder the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the big 3850-69’000 rally is @ 36’425, also roughly the weekly clouds bottom zone !
Watch closely at shorter intraday time frames to detect and get early signal (s) which will help you to validate or invalidate the implications previously mentioned.
Have a great weekend and have fun.
All the best.
Ironman8848 & Jean-Pierre Burki
All views expressed on my analysis are my own and do not represent the opinions of any entity, whatsoever with which I have been, I am now or I will be affiliated with. Any action you take upon the information on those analysis is strictly at your own risk and should not be considered as an advisory. The author assumes no responsibility or liability for any errors or omissions in the content of his analysis. The information contained is provided on an «as is» basis, with no guarantees of completeness, accuracy, usefulness or timeliness and without any warranties of any kind whatsoever, express or implied.