4 HOURS (H4)
Two successive failure attempts to breakout the clouds resistance triggered a reversal move from its recent top @ 4’739.50 towards a low so far of 4’606.75, filling in its way both the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement (4’572.75-4’739.50)@ 4’636.50 and the 78.6% Fib ret @ 4608.50.
Global picture in this time frame does not look very encouraging as currently the SP 500 is below :
1) The clouds
2) The Mid Bollinger Band
3) The Tenkan-Sen
4) The Kijun-Sen
and last but not least a Chikou-Span or Lagging line converging to the South as well…
RSI is @ 37.66
Last candle which closed a few minutes ago triggered an hammer pattern, watch next ongoing candle to validate or invalidate this pattern on a H4 closing basis !
1 HOUR (H1)
Watch ongoing candle for getting more clues about short term picture.
Next support zone to watch at very carefully is the daily clouds support zone which is currently between 4’633 and 4’500 and which should be seen as a key pivot zone for further development.
Indeed, a failure to :
1) stay and hold above the top of the clouds would be seen as the first warning signal, calling for further downside
2) A breakout of the bottom line of the former uptrend channel currently @ 4’566 (roughly the middle of the clouds too !) would also add more value for a downtrend continuation.
A breakout of 4’500 on a daily closing basis would :
1) confirm the double top formation in progress —> target 4’200
2) also confirm the breakout of the daily clouds bottom area
The ongoing weekly closing level, later on today, would add more indication for the next week…
As a gentle reminder, the Mid Bollinger Band is currently @ 4’572 and a weekly closing below this level would be very negative for the upcoming week (s).
Second important support to look at is the weekly Kijun-Sen, @ 4’516 should be seen as the LAST VERY IMPORTANT LEVEL IN THIS WEEKLY TIME FRAME !!!
A failure to hold above 4’516 on a weekly closing basis would put the focus on 4’186.50, weekly clouds top and also 23.6% Fib retracement of the big rally from 2’174 towards the ATH @ 4’808.25.
Ironman8848 & Jean-Pierre Burki
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