Last week price action triggered a long black candle which went down towards an intra-week low @ 40’517, testing the top of the weekly clouds area.
This week ongoing price action will be very interesting as there is a strong support zone between 40’860 and 37’360 !
Indeed, the BTCUSD , in this weekly time frame is below all important indicators ( TS , MBB and KS ) !
In order to neutralise the downside risk the BTCUSD should at least recover and hold above the Kijun-Sen, currently @ 49’148, on a weekly closing basis.
On the downside, a failure to hold (on a weekly closing basis) above the clouds support zone would open the door for a retest of former low @ 28’600 reached on June 2021 and which is also, roughly the level of the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement (28’737) of the big rally which started @ 3’850 towards the ATH @ 69’000.
Downtrend remains intact, below :
1) the clouds
2) the ongoing downtrend line
3) the Mid Bollinger Band
4) the Kijun-Sen ( KS )
5) the Tenkan-Sen ( TS )
After the recent decline seen ove the last couple of days a Doji pattern, took place on Jan 8th, which triggered, so far, only a small recovery which should not be seen as a strategic trend reversal yet as it has not been confirmed by a RSIbullish divergence !!
Indeed, such kind of price action is corrective only in a still ongoing bearish trend price action!
Only a sustainable recovery above 44253 would neutralise this ongoing downside risk !
4 HOURS (H4) – AT AN IMPORTANT PIVOT LEVEL AREA (41’760-42’150)
In this 4 hours time frame, a RSIbullish divergence , triggered the recent rally from the low of 40’517 to an intraday high reached yesterday evening @ 42’796; such reversal price action has been short lived as a failure to cross over the Kijun-Sen, pushed down again the BTCUSD which is now again facing this important resistance ( KS ), currently @ 42’150.
A 4 hours closing above 42’150 would be the first warning signal for a potential upside move towards the 4 hours downtrend line resistance, currently around the 44’000 area; nevertheless, on the other hand, on the downside, there is also an important support area around 41’850 and 41’760 and a failure to hold above 41’760 on a 4 hours closing basis would be the other warning, calling for further downside towards 41’200 ahead of the former lows around 40’500
On short term, watch the following levels, on a 4 hours closing basis :
Above 42’150 (short term bullish )
Between 42’150-41’760 (short term neutral)
Below 41’760 (short term bearish )
Have a nice week.
Ironman8848 & Jean-Pierre Burki
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