Firstly, I wish you an happy New Year, all the best and take care !
Today we are going to look closely at the recent and current price action on the 4 hours chart.
We also will have a quick view on daily, weekly and monthly charts too with respective implications on longer time frames.
This price action has also triggered a double top formation with its trigger level at 48’589 (higher intraday level reached yesterday morning (bull trap – inverted Head and Shoulder invalidation !)
Therefore, despite this recent recovery (3 white candles !!!) the BTCUSD did not managed to recover and close above the Mid Bollinger Band , which is currently @ 47’146 and which, once again should be seen as a good barometer on that H4 time frame and which will give more clues about further upcoming development.
Former lows around 45’500 have been under attack and, for the time being rejected the downside breakout attempt.
Ongoing price action is still pointing to the downside under the influence of the ongoing downtrend line resistance which has been tested this week.
Next weekly closing will give more clues as currently, we can see a bearish engulfing pattern in progress (which would be confirmed with a weekly closing below 46’671) and which also, if confirmed, would cancel the previous long white candle which was a bullish engulfing pattern.
Last but not least, if you look a the shape of the weekly clouds support you can see that for next week, the top support of the clouds are at around 42’000 which was the former low reached on Dec 4th 2021.
MONTHLY ( M1 )
December closing, below the Tenkan-Sen (@ 48’850) should be see as a negative signal calling for lower levels.
The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the 28’700-69’000 rally is @ 44’094 and below the next significant support is @ 37’324 (78.6% Fib ret) ahead of the monthly cluster support @ 36’450-35’850
Therefore, any countertrend position should be monitor very closely in screening shorter time frames, starting from M5 to longer intraday time frames to validate or invalidate the potential of any upside recovery attempt.
Ironman8848 & Jean-Pierre Burki
All views expressed on my analysis are my own and do not represent the opinions of any entity, whatsoever with which I have been, I am now or I will be affiliated with. Any action you take upon the information on those analysis is strictly at your own risk and should not be considered as an advisory. The author assumes no responsibility or liability for any errors or omissions in the content of his analysis. The information contained is provided on an «as is» basis, with no guarantees of completeness, accuracy, usefulness or timeliness and without any warranties of any kind whatsoever, express or implied.