The Mid Bollinger Band seems to work as a “magical line”, isnt’it ?
In addition, yesterday’s price action triggered a “SHOOTING STAR” which should be seen as new warning signal, calling for a new downside move; this pattern should, of course be confirmed by today’s price action as a failure :
1) to recover and close above the MBB
2) to close above 49’000 (in order to neutralise the ongoing downside move)
would confirm that the recent tactical corrective recovery is over.
Below, watch carefully TS & Conversion line, currently @ 47’539; a failure to hold on a daily closing basis above it would also be an additional negative signal calling for a retest
of the former “triple bottom” around 45’500.
Daily RSI , below 50 @ 42.88
Only a clear breakout of that level would force me to a view reassessment of my expected strategic bearish scenario.
4 HOURS (H4)
Despite an intraday high reached @ 49’600, the BTCUSD lost momentum and a wonderful “DOJI” marked the top and triggered a trend reversal; on its way down, the Tenkan-Sen has already be broken
and the Mid Bollinger Band and the H4 clouds support zone are under attack.
Clouds support zone , also coincides with respectively the 50 % Fib ret (@ 47’586 – middle of the clouds & Kijun-Sen) and the 61.8% (@47’110 – clouds bottom).
On the upside watch the TS (@48’825) which is the first significant level to look at on this H4 time frame and a recovery on H4 closing basis above that level would temporary neutralise this new ongoing downtrend move in progress.
Monitor also very closely the price action on shorter intraday time frames (H1 to M15) which will allow to detect early signal (s) which will validate or invalidate the implication of the expected D1 and H4 scenarios above mentioned.
Have a nice trading day and all the best.
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Ironman8848 & Jean-Pierre Burki
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