As mentioned in my previous analysis, it is very important to look at carefully short term intraday time frames which can help you to detect early signal of short term trend reversal, providing countertrend short term TACTICAL trading opportunities.
Looking at the hourly time frame (H1) a RSIbullish divergence , coupled with a double bottom formation has been detected a couple of hours ago, which triggered a short term recovery which on its way up, crossed over :
1) Tenkan-Sen @ 46’303
2) Mid Bollinger Band @ 46’589
then it attempted to upside breakout the Kijun-Sen (@46’728) with an intraday high on its last H1 period @ 46’879… but failed to stay and hold on a H1 basis closis above the KS @ 46’725
So what next ?
The ongoing trading hour and especially its closing level will be very important to look at; indeed, a next H1 closing level above the Kijun-Sen will be the first warning signal of further rally towards the next resistance area which is @ 47’100 (47’020 being the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the 49’515-45’478 downside move) ahead of 47’496 (50% Fib ret) – 47’450 being the double bottom trigger level !!
A successful breakout of 47’450 on H1 closing basis would activate and validate the double bottom formation in opening the door for a technical target @ 49’422, which roughly the former double top congestion seen
a couple days ago.
On the downside, a failure to hold and stay above the new cluster support zone (46’728-46’303) on H1 closing basis, would reopen the door for lower levels towards former lows around 45’500 and probably lower towards
the former 42’000 support area .
4 HOURS (H4)
Currently below the clouds, the Tenkan-Sen, the Kijun-Sen and the Mid Bollinger Band
First significant resistance level on this H4 time frame is @ 46’950
An upside breakout of this level on H4 closing basis would be the first confirmation of a continuation of this recovery, calling for 47’500 ahead of 47’750 and last but not least the H4 clouds resistance area , currently between 48’275 and 48’870. Watch also the ongoing H4 downtrend resistance line and which should also be seen as a good barometer on that time frame.
On the downside, same than for H1
No change in my BEARISH STRATEGIC VIEW !
Still in its downtrend channel ; yesterday’s price action triggered a daily closing level @ 46’210, for the first time below the ongoing sideways trading range (46’650-50’650) !
Currently trying to recover “timidly”…
In order to neutralise the ongoing downside risk is that daily time frame, the BTCUSD should at least recover and hold sustainably (on a closing basis) above 48’140 ! A failure to do it should be seen as a confirmation of the ongoing downside move, calling for lower levels towards 45’500 first and ahead 42’000 later.
Currently below the former uptrend support line (currently @ 52’750, which is also the Mid Bollinger Band level !) and below the Kijun-Sen (@ 48’800 too).
Ongoing weekly closing will be very important to look at as a failure to close above 48’800 would be an additional bearish signal in this time frame, calling for lower levels towards the weekly clouds support area between 45’000 and 37’000, with an intermediate minor support level around 42’000 (former low )
MONTHLY ( M1 )
Very long term picture is showing the following information :
Fibonacci retracements (3’850 – 69’000 rally !) :
38.2 % @ 44’112 (already filled)
50.0 % @ 36’425 (also Kijun-Sen)
61.8% @ 28’737 (roughly former lows & double bottom !)
Interesting to note that the monthly Mid Bollinger Band is currently @ 33’975
In reading my multi time frames analysis, I hope, I have been able to help you to better understand “Ironman8848” technical analysis methodology which is showing you the corroboration of all time frames analysis, starting from intraday time frames to get early signals towards longer time frames to get confirmation of the trend.
Have a great weekend and if you like my technical analysis methodology, please :
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All the best and take care.
Ironman8848 & Jean-Pierre Burki
All views expressed on my analysis are my own and do not represent the opinions of any entity, whatsoever with which I have been, I am now or I will be affiliated with. Any action you take upon the information on those analysis is strictly at your own risk and should not be considered as an advisory. The author assumes no responsibility or liability for any errors or omissions in the content of his analysis. The information contained is provided on an «as is» basis, with no guarantees of completeness, accuracy, usefulness or timeliness and without any warranties of any kind whatsoever, express or implied.