2021/10/31 14:32 PM – US 10 YEARS -W1 -BEARISH ENGULFING !

US 10 YEARS – W1 – BEARISH ENGULFING ! by Ironman8848 on TradingView.com

Weekly (W1)


After a RSI bearish divergence detected the week before, the last week price action triggered a “Bearish Engulfing pattern” which should be seen as a second warning signal calling for a trend reversal !

Indeed, looking back we can see 2 clear trends and in monitoring the ongoing uptrend we can easily see the failure to confirm an upside breakout of the ongoing uptrend channel .


So, looking forward, it is likely to see further downside towards 1.4850 % first (38.2 % Fib ret & Tenkan-Sen), ahead of 1.4170 % (50% & Kijun-Sen).


Mid-Bollinger Band, slightly below and currently @ 1. 40 % should again be seen as the barometer indicator, having in mind the following mood :

Above 1.4000 % bullish (yield) and below 1.4000 % ( bearish yield)

Interesting to note that a failure to stay and hold above 1.4000 % on a weekly closing basis would confirm a downside breakout of this ongoing uptrend channel and potentially open the door for a new downtrend move, calling for 1.35 % – 1.25 %.

On the upside, only a clear breakout of the former high @ 1.7060 would neutralise the downside risk and would open the door for higher level towards 1.80-1.90 (former congestion top)

Daily (D1) :


Failure to recover both above TS and Mid Bollinger band on a daily closing basis should also be seen as a negative signal, calling for further downside. In addition, the 10 Years US Treasury is currently flirting with the Kijun-Sen important level support @ 1.550 %.


A daily closing level below 1.55 % would also add further selling pressure (yield) which would open the door for the levels above mentioned in my W1 analysis.


On this time frame, very interesting to note that the clouds support area coincides with the Fibonacci retracement , 1.4170 % and 1.3480 %, being respectively the 50 % and 61.8%.

CONCLUSION :


Watch the clouds on shorter intraday time frames which will help you to get intermediate signal (s) for validation or invalidation of the scenarios above mentioned.


H 4 : below the clouds


H1 : bottom of the clouds under attack


M30, M15, M5 : below the clouds

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All the best and take care.

Ironman8848 🙂

Disclaimer :

All views expressed on my analysis are my own and do not represent the opinions of any entity, whatsoever with which I have been, I am now or I will be affiliated with. Any action you take upon the information on those analysis is strictly at your own risk and should not be considered as an advisory. The author assumes no responsibility or liability for any errors or omissions in the content of his analysis. The information contained is provided on an «as is» basis, with no guarantees of completeness, accuracy, usefulness or timeliness and without any warranties of any kind whatsoever, express or implied. 

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